Derrick Henry Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (+115/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 21.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has picked up 95.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (77.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (89.9% in games he has played).
Derrick Henry's ground efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 3.01 yards-per-carry vs a 4.31 rate last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.23 yards-per-carry.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.