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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+109/-147).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
  • The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (81.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).
  • Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (100th percentile).
  • The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least TDs in football (0.60 per game) versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season.
  • The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
  • The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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