Derrick Henry Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-214/+157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -153 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -214.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.7 plays per game.
Derrick Henry has rushed for 1.11 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (100th percentile).
The New York Giants linebackers profile as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace among all games this week, averaging 27.34 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to be much less involved in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (82.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (94.3% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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