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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.1%) to RBs this year (86.1%).
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's LB corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 5th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.08 seconds per play.
  • The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Derrick Henry's 78.7% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 91.8% mark.

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