Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 7, 2025 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The Steelers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.7%) vs. RBs this year (88.7%).

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
The model projects the Ravens as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At a massive 30.21 seconds per snap, the Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-slowest paced in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Derrick Henry's 82.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a significant decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 91.8% figure.

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