Derrick Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to garner 2.9 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 10.2% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.8%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (75.8%).

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