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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 85th percentile among running backs this year, averaging an astounding 2.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • With an excellent 8.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry ranks among the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL in the open field.
  • This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has conceded a whopping 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-worst in the NFL.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) vs. running backs this year (91.0%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

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