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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Ravens are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Rams defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.
  • When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a massive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 44.8 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Derrick Henry's 5.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a substantial diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 12.0 figure.

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