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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Ravens will be forced to use backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Derrick Henry has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, playing on just 46.1% of snaps compared to 57.8% last season.
  • As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the towering 79th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • With an excellent 93.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (76th percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among running backs.
  • Derrick Henry checks in as one of the most effective pass-catchers in the league when it comes to running backs, averaging an impressive 9.62 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the model to run just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 47.0 plays per game.
  • Derrick Henry's 7.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season conveys a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 12.0 rate.
  • The Texans pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78.9%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (78.9%).

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