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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • Derrick Henry has notched a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • This year, the feeble Steelers pass defense has been torched for a colossal 85.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 9th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.
  • The Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Derrick Henry's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 92.0% to 78.6%.

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