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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • When it comes to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the towering 81st percentile among RBs this year, totaling a colossal 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • This year, the porous Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 85.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 10th-largest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script.
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.0 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 51.9 plays per game.
  • The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

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