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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see 129.7 total plays run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the lofty 78th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an impressive 1.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).
  • The Bengals defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (44.0) to running backs this year.
  • This year, the feeble Bengals defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a colossal 7.63 yards.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.
  • Derrick Henry's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 91.9% to 81.1%.

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