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Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

As it relates to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a striking 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 14-point favorite in this week's contest.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.

The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Derrick Henry's 7.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year marks a material diminishment in his receiving skills over last year's 12.0 mark.

More Derrick Henry Player Props

Derrick Henry Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12