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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the model to run 66.4 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Derrick Henry has accrued a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Derrick Henry has been one of the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a remarkable 8.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 89th percentile.
  • The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.3% pass rate.
  • The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 28.6 per game) this year.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year.

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