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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) last year.
  • Derrick Henry has been on the field for 58.1% of his offense's snaps last year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
  • With a terrific 9.7 adjusted yards per target (93rd percentile) last year, Derrick Henry stands among the best pass-game running backs in the league.
  • Derrick Henry is positioned as one of the leading RBs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an impressive 11.11 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 91st percentile.
  • Last year, the feeble Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a staggering 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 2nd-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.49 seconds per play.
  • Last year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a puny 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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