Derrick Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Derrick Henry's 100.0% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a a substantial gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 84.3% mark.
Derrick Henry's 9.7 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 8.9 mark.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-oriented team in football (57.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Titans.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
When it comes to air yards, Derrick Henry ranks in the measly 9th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -7.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Derrick Henry has been used much less in his offense's passing attack.

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