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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • In this week's game, Derrick Henry is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.4 rush attempts.
  • Out of all RBs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 63.8% of the workload in his team's ground game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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