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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+115/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to notch 18.0 carries in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Among all running backs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 90th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 60.0% of the workload in his offense's running game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Ravens have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.3 plays per game.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Detroit's unit has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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