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Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-144/+124).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -144.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to run on 39.7% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to earn 18.0 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.Derrick Henry has been given 62.6% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per snap.The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's group of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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