Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Derrick Henry to accrue 18.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Titans this year (just 52.0 per game on average).
After taking on 80.1% of his team's rush attempts last year, Derrick Henry has been less involved in the ground game this year, now taking on just 69.8%.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Atlanta's group of DTs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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