Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Titans as the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 42.5% run rate.
The projections expect Derrick Henry to total 16.7 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Among all RBs, Derrick Henry grades out in the 98th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 71.6% of the workload in his offense's run game.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
A throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.6 plays per game.
The Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

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