Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Derrick Henry has earned 86.0% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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