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Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry Carries
Player Prop Week 18

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 23.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Derrick Henry has been given 84.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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