Derrick Henry Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Derrick Henry

NFL · Player Props

Derrick Henry

RB · Tennessee Titans

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Derrick Henry Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.47 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to notch 23.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has been given 84.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Tennessee Titans will be rolling out backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Titans are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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