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D'Ernest Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

D'Ernest Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+350/-580).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +345 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +350.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

The Patriots O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

D'Ernest Johnson has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL among RBs (1st percentile).

This year, the shaky Jets defense has yielded a massive 0.33 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the 3rd-biggest rate in the league.

When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New York's group of DTs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a huge 12.5-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 4th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.6 per game) this year.

With a dismal 0.0% Red Zone Target% (2nd percentile) this year, D'Ernest Johnson stands among the pass-catching RBs with the lowest volume near the end zone in the league.

More D'Ernest Johnson Player Props

D'Ernest Johnson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

D'Ernest Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11