D'Ernest Johnson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D'Ernest Johnson

NFL · Player Props

D'Ernest Johnson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Ernest Johnson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In terms of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.49 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars as the 6th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 39.6% of their chances: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
D'Ernest Johnson has played on 13.2% of his offense's snaps this year, placing him in the 13th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
With a lousy record of 1.97 yards after contact (22nd percentile) this year, D'Ernest Johnson has been among the least effective running backs in the NFL.

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