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Derius Davis

Derius Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2250/-7250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -7250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 60.9% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL under these circumstances has been the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • The Titans pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.6%) to wideouts this year (76.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chargers being an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.
  • With a bottom-tier 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Derius Davis ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.

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