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Derius Davis

Derius Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+890/-3100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1650 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 58.9% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Broncos run defense has conceded a feeble 0.58 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-smallest rate in football.

The Broncos safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (46.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

Derius Davis, who has received 3.1% of his team's rush attempts near the goal line since the start of last season (95th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Los Angeles Chargers red zone run game.

Derius Davis has totaled a meager 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 10th percentile among wide receivers.

Derius Davis slots into just the 11th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a subpar 6.3 figure since the start of last season.

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