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Derius Davis

Derius Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2700/-2800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -4500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (59.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • This year, the porous Patriots defense has been torched for a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • Derius Davis has been not been very involved his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among wideouts.
  • Derius Davis has totaled a mere 3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile among WRs.
  • Derius Davis's 2.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in football: 2nd percentile for wideouts.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.

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