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Derius Davis

Derius Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1350/-1850).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1850.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.
  • The Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced run volume.
  • This year, the poor Raiders pass defense has conceded a monstrous 68.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 122.9 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • With a feeble 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Derius Davis stands among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
  • Derius Davis has accumulated a feeble 3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 7th percentile among WRs.
  • Derius Davis places in just the 3rd percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a bad 2.0 mark this year.

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