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Derius Davis

Derius Davis Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Derius Davis Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2100/-3900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -3600 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -3900.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.0% pass rate.
  • The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 61.6 per game on average).
  • The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.
  • This year, the stout Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has yielded a feeble 0.67 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • With a dismal 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) this year, Derius Davis rates among the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the league.
  • After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last year, Derius Davis has undergone a big decline this year, now boasting -1.0 per game.

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