My Account Log Out

reorder

Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Derek Carr's passing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 67.2% to 71.5%.

Derek Carr has been among the best TD throwers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.50 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (44.6% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Saints.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The model projects Derek Carr to throw 32.7 passes in this game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

More Derek Carr Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™