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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -3-point underdog in this game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

With a remarkable 67.8% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) since the start of last season, Derek Carr ranks as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.

Derek Carr has been one of the leading TD throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 1.58 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New Orleans Saints.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in football against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (68.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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