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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

This year, the poor Giants defense has surrendered a massive 75.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.

The Giants safeties grade out as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (47.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Saints.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

In this game, Derek Carr is projected by the predictive model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.4.

More Derek Carr Player Props

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