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Derek Carr

Derek Carr TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Derek Carr is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.1.

Derek Carr has been one of the best TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 1.62 per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.64 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (48.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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