Derek Carr TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Derek Carr TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders rank as the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Derek Carr has attempted 36.4 throws per game this year, grading out in the 75th percentile among QBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Derek Carr has been among the best TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.67 per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Derek Carr's passing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 62.0%.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

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