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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-122/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 43.3% run rate.

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This year, the weak Rams run defense has conceded a monstrous 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 4th-worst in football.

The Rams linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

This week, Derek Carr is predicted by the model to notch the 4th-fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 1.7.

Derek Carr is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for just 4.7% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 23rd percentile when it comes to QBs.

With an awful record of 6.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (24th percentile), Derek Carr places as one of the weakest running quarterbacks in the league this year.

Derek Carr ranks as one of the bottom quarterbacks in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 0.33 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 5th percentile.

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