Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 8, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is implied by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to run on 40.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
The predictive model expects Derek Carr to total 1.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all QBs.
Derek Carr is more comfortable in the pocket and has accounted for a measly 3.3% of his team's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 11th percentile when it comes to QBs.
With an atrocious rate of 3.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (8th percentile), Derek Carr places as one of the weakest rushing QBs in football this year.

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