Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.2% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Derek Carr's rushing efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 5.61 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.73 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to notch 1.9 carries in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.
Derek Carr has been among the bottom QBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 0.62 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 13th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 9th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.