Derek Carr Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be much more involved in his offense's run game this week (7.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.3% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Derek Carr's ground efficiency has been refined this season, notching 5.80 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.73 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to accumulate 2.0 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has been among the worst quarterbacks in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 0.62 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 108 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

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