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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 206.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 200.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 206.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see 134.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.

The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.1 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Derek Carr's 190.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a noteworthy decline in his passing prowess over last season's 221.0 figure.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.83 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in football.

The Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.51 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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