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Derek Carr Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-100/-130).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 231.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 229.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Saints have run the 3rd-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.With a stellar 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) last year, Derek Carr has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5-point advantage, the Saints are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.9 per game) last year.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year.Last year, the tough Panthers defense has conceded a puny 170.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the fewest in football.Last year, the strong Panthers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a paltry 7.2 yards.
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