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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Completions
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

The predictive model expects Derek Carr to throw 37.0 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Cleveland's group of CBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (62.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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