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Derek Carr

Derek Carr Completions
Player Prop Week 10

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see 134.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.

The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.1 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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