Derek Carr Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Derek Carr

NFL · Player Props

Derek Carr

QB · New Orleans Saints

Completions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Derek Carr Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
This year, the feeble Bears defense has surrendered a whopping 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in football.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

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