Deon Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Deon Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Deon Jackson

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Deon Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to total 11.3 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Deon Jackson to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (38.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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