Denzel Mims Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Denzel Mims

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Denzel Mims Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a heavy 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Denzel Mims has been among the bottom pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 15.0 yards per game while ranking in the 19th percentile among wide receivers.
Denzel Mims has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching just 41.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 11th percentile among wideouts
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 143.0) vs. WRs this year.