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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+530/-660).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +560 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +530.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
  • The opposing side have run for the 8th-fewest touchdowns in the league (0.57 per game) vs. the Falcons defense this year.
  • The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a 5-point favorite in this game.
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 5th-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • While DeMario Douglas has earned 15.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of New England's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 8.7%.

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