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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers

Demario Douglas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -620 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

DeMario Douglas ranks in the 76th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a remarkable 0.25 per game.

Since the start of last season, the poor Panthers defense has allowed a massive 1.10 receiving touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

The Panthers linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.3 per game) since the start of last season.

The model projects DeMario Douglas to be a much smaller piece of his team's air attack near the end zone in this game (8.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (23.1% in games he has played).

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