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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 21

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -550 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
  • The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • This year, the formidable Broncos run defense has conceded a measly 0.61 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
  • The Patriots are willing to include receivers in their run game, and DeMario Douglas has received 1.2% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among WRs).
  • After accumulating 29.0 air yards per game last year, DeMario Douglas has posted significant losses this year, now averaging 24.0 per game.

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