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Demario Douglas

Demario Douglas Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Demario Douglas Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+590/-620).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -910 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -620.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (35.5 per game) this year.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
  • The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • While DeMario Douglas has accounted for 11.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in New England's offense near the goal line this week at 6.0%.
  • DeMario Douglas's 22.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 35.8.

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